International Journals

International Journals

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12

  • Risk aggregation in non-life insurance: Standard models vs. internal models
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    Risk aggregation in non-life insurance: Standard models vs. internal models
    Standard models for capital requirements restrict the correlation between risk factors to the linear measure and disregard undertaking-specific parameters. We consider an alternative framework for risk aggregation in non-life insurance using vine copulas that allow non-linear dependence and are estimated with undertaking-specific parameters. We empirically compare our alternative risk model with three regulatory standard models (Korean risk-based capital, Solvency II, Swiss Solvency Test) and show that the standard models lead to more than 50% higher capital requirements on average. Half of the overestimation results from the uniform parameter selection imposed by regulations and the other half comes from the linear correlation assumption. The differences might distort competition when both standard models and internal risk models are used in a single market.
    Martin Eling Kwangmin Jung
  • Copula approaches for modeling cross-sectional dependence of data breach losses
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    Copula approaches for modeling cross-sectional dependence of data breach losses
    Many experts claim that cyber risks are correlated, but there is not much supporting empirical evidence. We consider 3327 data breach events from 2005 to 2016 and identify a significant asymmetric dependence of monthly losses in two cross-sectional settings: cross-industry losses in four categories by breach types (hacking, lost electronic device, unintended disclosure and insider breach) and cross-breach type losses in five categories by industries (banking and insurance, government, medical service, retail/other business and educational institution). To identify the method that best fits the dependence structure of the dataset, we implement copula modeling by separating the dependence into pairwise non-zero losses and zero loss arrivals. We model the former by pair copula construction (PCC) allowing for the flexible choice of copula functions, whereas the latter is modeled by Gaussian copula. We illustrate the usefulness of our results in two applications to risk measurement and pricing. Our findings are important for risk managers and actuaries who are designing cyber-insurance policies.
    Martin Eling Kwangmin Jung